The next digital disruptions Lee Rainie Pew Research Center Director Internet, Science and Technology Research Presented to: Future of the Net Milan, Italy October 5, 2015
Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered Mediators and feedback providers
Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007) 2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones 3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in 2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults
November 28, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 7
Digital Life in 2025 The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped expectations, and tech complexity. The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025
Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors, cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.
Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.
Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.
Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social realms.
Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater roles in job functions
Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the privileged will enjoy.
Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence. http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/
Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life miserable for others.
Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.