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Why Achillion Pharmaceuticals Shares Soared in October
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What:
Achillion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical stage biotech researching hepatitis C treatment.
Odalasvir (ACH-3102) is an NS5A inhibitor.
ACH-3422 is a nucleotide NS5B inhibitor.
Sovaprevir is a protease inhibitor.
Shares jumped 13.2% in October.
Co-developer Johnson & Johnson outlines plans for mid stage studies that include Achillion’s lead candidate.
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Achillion Pharmaceuticals
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So What:
Hepatitis C is a major market indication affecting millions of people globally.
~3 million people in the United States.
~9 million people in Europe.
~1.5 million people in Japan.
Up to 170 million people worldwide.
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So What:
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So What:
Johnson & Johnson is positioning its HCV therapy as a short duration, best-in-class solution.
Mid stage study to begin soon.
Evaluates J&J’s Olysio and AL-335, plus Achillion’s ACH-3102.
Studying safety and efficacy over four-, six-, and eight-week treatment durations.
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Now what:
Hepatitis C treatment is a multi-billion dollar market.
Top therapies annual sales run rate of >$22 billion exiting Q3.
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Now what continued:
Increasingly competitive marketplace.
Merck FDA decision date for its HCV therapy on January 28.
Gilead Sciences application of its next-generation pan-genotype HCV therapy submitted in October 2015.
AbbVie FDA application for once-daily dosing of Viekira Pak submitted in October 2015.
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Now what continued:
Future battle for market share to focus on short duration therapies with 95% plus cure rates.
No guarantee that J&J’s trials will succeed.
Data from phase 2 expected in 2016.
If successful and approved, Achillion will receive milestones and royalties.
Development, sales, and regulatory milestones of $1.1 billion.
Tiered royalties from mid-teens to low 20% range.
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Now what continued:
Achillion Pharmaceuticals is a high-risk company without any products on the market.
Big potential market.
Potentially shortest duration HCV therapy if approved.
Significant trial and commercialization experience via J&J.
Suitable for risk-tolerant investors able to withstand a clinical trial failure.
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This iSecret stock could make Achillion’s pop look tiny.
